![]() ![]() If you want some further reading: here's an article from the WMO, NOAA's approach to S2S as of 2017, and a paper outlining different applications.įorecasts beyond five days from GFS, ECWMF, etc are usually only realistic for < 5 days, with greatest accuracy in the 1-3 days. Chaos theory generally indicates that the small errors in observations and thus initial conditions make exact forecasts impossible out past the 1-2 week timeframe (depending on little tricks you can use), so it may just be we have to live with "fuzzy" forecasts and improve our understanding of the large-scale climate & weather drivers. ![]() It's a growing research topic, and (very much IMO) it comes down to a lack of observations/observational certainty. Why try? I think it's because as humans, we We can make large hand-waving gestures at maybe warmer/colder or broadly drier/wetter based on our understanding of phenomena like ENSO or the MJO combined with climatology for a region, but even that can lead us astray, as you mention. Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting is a really tough topic for a variety of reasons. It was a "duh" moment directed at me and fully deserved. Oh, don't take my "LOL" moment as derogatory. Plus, the predictions about a warm January in the mid-Atlantic in January seemed to be way off except for a couple of slightly warmer than average days. So I picked up a subscription to Pivotal Weather just to get access to some of the different models and was a bit surprised by divergence at one week, much less one month (I think the latter was the older Canadian model). Just this week I saw differences of 10 degrees on a given day for five days out across two different tv meteorologists in the same city. I don't know, I didn't walk into this with a number but say 80% of the time. The "ask" was to get a feel for what period of time in the future it was felt the models were useful for decision making. Trust me, I get the sheer magnitude of information used to feed the models. "In most situations we are in the right ball park for when it will rain, what temperature it will be, etc a week into the future." That information might be useful for others in the future. While it's your choice to delete your own posts, consider that others put a lot of their time and effort into helping you. It's OK to ask for advice on a problem, but we're not here to do your homework for you Be aware of Reddit guidelines on self-promotion - i.e. Misleading information will be removed instantly. Please do not downvote users who ask simple weather related questions Please keep posts and discussions meteorology related Pictures Videos/Animations Advice/Questions Articles/Publications Education/Career Other Check out these other interesting subreddits: For weather related articles, exciting weather events and sharing our favorite weather stuff.įor personalized flair (Graduates, Postgraduates, Postdocs, Experts, Pro forecasters, etc) please contact the mods with some proof. For anyone from professionals to hobbyists. ![]()
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